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There is little reason to see U.

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Washington offers aid only when its uses align with U. It is true that not all aid is the same. Indeed, some NGOs have done impressive research tracking how much money these countries receive and how they use it. In Latin America, aid apportioned through the State Department typically falls into two categories: security assistance and development assistance. Security assistance refers to police assistance, including training, equipment, and professionalization programs. In Mexico and Central America, for example, the U.

As a Congressional Research Service report states plainly, the true intentions of U. On the Left, the debate around U. Closer to the political establishment, one wing has focused its efforts on trying to cut off or reduce security aid through legislative mechanisms that impose more rigorous conditions on certain funding. For example, before the Trump administration cut off aid, it had set conditions for aid to Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Fifty percent of the funds, on the other hand, could be withheld if the governments were not certified as adequately addressing 12 other concerns. Some of the concerns listed seem laudable, like protecting the rights of journalists and opposition parties and supporting programs to reduce poverty and promote equitable growth. All in all, these conditions read as a veiled threat: stop your people from leaving and cooperate with our policy recommendations—from mano dura to the drug war to neoliberal reforms—or else.

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It is worth noting that under the Obama administration, the conditions placed greater emphasis on human rights, but they still went hand-in-hand with requirements about stemming unauthorized migration. In any case, the Congressional Research Service attests that the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras received their certifications to secure their full aid packages in FY and Unfortunately, however, understanding why policymakers in the United States are likely to opt for a strategy of deterrence based on detention and deportation does not make it an effective strategy.

What our results point to is the inability of this approach to dissuade that subset of individuals who have directly experienced the cruelties of life in a high-crime context from taking a life-threatening chance to escape that reality. First, it is now a well-established finding among migration scholars that efforts to increase border security, whether by building a longer and higher wall or further militarizing the border, have a limited deterrence effect on those seeking to enter a particular destination country e. Rather, border walls and militarization tend to increase the chances that migrants currently in the destination country will remain there rather than return home Massey, Durand, and Malone In this context, the notion of a continued emphasis on expedited removal, particularly for this vulnerable population, would seem to fly in the face of US commitments to domestic and international legal norms with respect to basic standards of treatment for refugees.

The fact that the United States has a long history of selective adherence to these commitments, particularly with respect to those fleeing conflicts in Central America e. Though the immigration case backlog and significantly understaffed immigration judiciary have been clear for at least a decade, the surge in Central American women and children border arrivals in recent years has brought the system to the brink of apparent collapse.

As a consequence, the average wait time for a case to be heard is more than double what it was in , standing at days in TRAC A reflection of this funding disparity emerges from a comparison of increases in the number of immigration judges and the number of CBP agents since the early s. For the former, the number moved from judges in to in The number of CBP agents, meanwhile, nearly doubled during the same time period, moving from 10, in to 21, in Fitz and Wolgin In addition to efforts during the summer of to expand the scope of the Central American Minors program and continue implementation of in-country screening of asylum claims, an agreement was reached with the government of Costa Rica to enlist that country in the protection of refugees fleeing Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras CBP All of these efforts appear to be driven by the increase in US border apprehensions of Central Americans after a decline.

Such a recognition suggests that there is at least some impetus to change the view of many US policymakers that all US southwest border arrivals are motivated by economic considerations, and thus can be easily dissuaded from making such a journey with the right message of deterrence. Whether these initial signs of change will continue is unclear, but evidence that migration flows from these countries are driven as much, if not more, by violence than they are by economics is abundantly clear.

Types of Victimization by Country Descriptive Statistics: Guatemala, National Sample. Descriptive Statistics: Honduras, National Sample. Descriptive Statistics: Honduras, Municipal Sample. Odds Ratios.


Crime Rates in Selected Honduran Municipalities We wish to extend our deepest thanks to Dr. Elizabeth Zechmeister, director of LAPOP, for providing us the opportunity to include a series of migration-related items in these surveys. As a point of comparison, the homicide rate in the United States was 4. For more information on the impact of natural disasters on state capacity see Azpuru The results are also presented as odd ratios in the appendix Tables A6—7. See Heeringa, West, and Berglund for more information on estimation procedures for the analysis of survey data.

For comparison purposes, we also replicate the models without taking into account the features of the sample design using the Maximum Likelihood estimator see Tables A8—9 in the appendix. Our conclusions remain unchanged if we use either method, but here we report the results that properly take into account the sample design.

All our models were estimated using Stata Similarly, when the logit models are estimated without taking into account the sample design based on the maximum likelihood estimator, we find that our models perform well see Tables A12— More specifically, based on the likelihood ratio test, we can reject the hypothesis that an empty model without predictors is better at explaining the dependent variable than the models we estimate.

Moreover, we find that each of our models correctly predicts the dependent variable at least 73 percent of the time. Mean predicted probabilities are estimated by averaging these probabilities across individual observations. The survey is a probability design i. The survey design follows a multistage stratified and clustered sampling. Perceiving that migration conditions are worse across all four dimensions does not deter individuals from planning to migrate.

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Crime victimization remains the main factor predicting emigration intentions. Although the perceptions of US immigration variables are positively correlated see Table A15 , these correlations are not strong enough to introduce instability in the models. When we include each of these variables one at a time in the models, the results remain similar.

Conventional diagnostic tests to detect multicollinearity also show that the results of Model 4 in Table 3 are not affected by multicollinearity see Table A She studies the political impacts of inequality and marginalization in the Latin American context. Her research agenda integrates topics related to economic inequality, gender inequality, crime and violence, and international migration. Archer, Kellie, and Stanley Lemeshow. Archibold, Randal, and Damien Cave. Azpuru, Dinorah. Mondak, and Sergio C. Carey, David, Jr.

Gabriela Torres. Border, Awareness Campaign. Creighton, Mathew J. Johnson on Southwest Border Security. Donato, Katharine, and Blake Sisk. Fitz, Marshall, and Philip E.

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Hamlin, Rebecca. New York: Oxford University Press. Heeringa, Steven, Brady T. West, and Patricia A. Applied Survey Data Analysis. Boca Raton: Taylor and Francis. Hiskey, Jonathan T. Policies Are Failing to Deter Them. InSight Crime. Honduras Country Report. Levenson, Deborah T. Lundquist, Jennifer H. International Migration during the Nicaraguan Contra War. Malone, Mary Fran T.

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New York: Continuum Books. Massey, Douglas. Edward Taylor.